Why growth momentum of nuclear energy is at its strongest since the turn of the millennium?

Nuclear energy has long been controversial and its development has been stagnant for two decades, especially in advanced economies that pared back construction plans after the Fukushima accident in 2021. Today, 32 countries operate 420GW of nuclear power around the world, generating 10% of global electricity, down from a peak of 18% in the mid-1990s.

But today, the momentum of nuclear energy is at its strongest since the start of the millennium, driven by two fundamental and lasting forces: decarbonisation and energy security.

First, nuclear energy is seen as an indispensable part of an accelerated energy transition due to its generation efficiency and stability. Economies accounting for nearly 30% of global GDP announced net-zero commitments in 2021 alone, raising the total share of net-zero coverage to 80%. In 2021, the IEA incorporated newly announced global net-zero pledges into an Announced Pledges Scenario, forecasting over 220GW of new nuclear plants to be built by 2035, exceeding its past prediction of 190GW for the same period.

Second, heightened geopolitical tensions and tightened energy fundamentals recently have raised the alarm of energy security and stability. This provides further impetus for countries, especially European nations, to boost nuclear capacity. And high energy prices are making security and economic augments for nuclear power even more compelling.

In the past weeks, several European countries have announced plans in favour of nuclear power. The UK is targeting 24-30GW of nuclear capacity by 2050, a substantial rise from the 4.5GW of operational fleet today. A cross-party group of MPs is urging ministers to produce a roadmap calling for 15GW of new nuclear generation by 2035 and 30GW by 2050. And today (21.03.2022) the UK prime minister is hosting a roundtable of leaders in the nuclear sector to discuss both new large-scale plants and small modular reactors (SMRs). The prime minister would discuss “how government and industry can work together to remove barriers and progress future nuclear projects in the UK more quickly and cheaply”.

France has announced to build 14 new nuclear reactors by 2050. French president says ‘renaissance’ of atomic energy will help end the country’s reliance on fossil fuels. And Belgium’s government is working to extend the life of two nuclear reactors beyond their original shutdown date of 2025.

To translate the growth momentums into numbers, we forecast over 281GW of new nuclear capacities to be built by 2035, of which 73% comes from developing countries. Our forecast exceeds IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario, but remains below the agency’s Net-Zero Emissions Scenario that portrays what is needed for the world to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

Despite the strong momentum, challenges of a speedy build-up of nuclear energy remain. public opinions, cost overruns and unexpected accidents could all hamper growth. Nevertheless, there is never a perfect solution in the energy trilemma of economics, environment and security. And nuclear power possesses a sound balance answering todays energy requirements through offering a solution to both energy security and decarbonisation.