Introduction

Green hydrogen has immense potential, with an impressive pipeline of over 100 megaprojects (each with a hydrogen-dedecated renewable capacity exceeding 1GW) around the globe. With a total capacity of 56 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), these projects account for 75% of the current global hydrogen capacity. However, concrete progress has been slow, with the Neom initiative in Saudi Arabia being the only megaproject under construction. FIDs are scarce due to high costs, immature value chain and regulatory uncertainties.

Despite these obstacles, the future looks bright. The confluence of rising energy prices, stronger government support and improved value chain readiness could lead to a wave of megaproject approvals starting in 2024, if not already this year. Our analysis of project, economic and political dynamics suggests that the Middle East, Australia and Europe are poised to lead this wave. The tipping point is not far away.